Key Takeaways
- Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan guess an nameless Twitter account $1 million that Bitcoin would commerce at $1 million or larger in 90 days
- Srinivasan is predicting imminent hyperinflation and a collapse of the US greenback
- Wager is on wildly unfavourable phrases, with the opposite facet of the guess, James Medlock, capable of lock in large revenue risk-free by merely shopping for a name choice with a $1 million strike for insurance coverage
- Wager comes almost a yr to the day after Do Kwon’s notorious guess with one other nameless Twitter account over LUNA worth
I’m no chemist, however some of the potent mixtures recognized to humankind must be that of ego and cash.
In what could go down within the annals of Web historical past, former Coinbase chief expertise officer and outstanding angel investor Balaji Srinivasan guess $1 million that the worth of Bitcoin can be $1 million or larger in 90 days’ time.
The guess was confirmed over Twitter, with the opposite facet taken by nameless meme fanatic James Medlock. “(My spouse) is the one one who is aware of I’m James Medlock”, he posted in one other tweet. “And I instantly advised her concerning the guess”.
What’s the guess?
The guess began when Medlock posted the beneath tweet, an innocuous tweet outlining his perception that the US wouldn’t expertise hyperinflation, apparently in response to some crypto fanatics declaring that it was inevitable.
I will guess anybody $1 million {dollars} that the US doesn’t enter hyperinflation
— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) March 16, 2023
It ought to have ended there. However in got here Srinivasan declaring he “will take that guess”. Not solely that, however on wildly unfavourable phrases. The setup is that this: Medlock sends 1 BTC and Srinivasan sends $1 million to escrow in the present day, with the latter denominated within the stablecoin USDC.
The logic is that, have been hyperinflation to happen and the US greenback to break down, Bitcoin would reap the good points and explode upwards. Therefore, the guess turned from hyperinflation into the Bitcoin worth.
If Bitcoin trades at $1 million or larger on June seventeenth, the kitty is Medlock’s. If it doesn’t Srinivasan takes the bounty.
I’ll take that guess.
You purchase 1 BTC.
I’ll ship $1M USD.
That is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is price ~$26k.
The time period is 90 days.
All we’d like is a mutually agreed custodian who will nonetheless be there to settle this within the occasion of digital greenback devaluation.
If somebody is aware of how to do that… https://t.co/tcuBNd679T pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023
The guess is unnecessary
Clearly, this guess is unnecessary for a wide range of causes. Firstly, the unique tweet was a joke, as $1 million within the occasion of hyperinflation would change into nugatory.
However the crux of it’s the phrases. market odds, it is a longshot of virtually unattainable odds. A lot so, in truth, {that a} large chunk of the guess could possibly be assured to Medlock in a risk-free method in about 30 seconds, ought to he so please.
All he must do is go to the market and purchase a name choice on Bitcoin with a strike worth of $1 million {dollars} on the identical expiry date of the guess (June seventeenth). This may price pennies compared, and a large chunk of the $1 million could possibly be pocketed.
After all, everyone is aware of this, and the guess is nothing greater than a seize at publicity or some kind of self-marketing stunt by Srinivasan. He reportedly already holds a large stash of Bitcoin in any case, with the guess not being overly materials to him. Name me a cynic, however there’s additionally the truth that Srinivasan launched a podcast a month in the past.
The humorous half is that Medlock didn’t have 1 BTC, price $26,000 on the time, at hand. Poker participant Isaac Haxton stepped in to cowl the 1 BTC (with out taking any upside). Medlock has additionally stated he’ll donate a complete of 70% of the winnings after taxes to charity – but he’ll nonetheless pocket a cool $300,000 from a tweet which was a literal joke.
What must occur for the guess to win?
Have been this guess to win, it’s arduous to think about what the world would seem like. A 3600% improve to $1 million per Bitcoin in 90 days would place the market cap of Bitcoin at near $20 trillion. That may be a mind-boggling quantity – for one factor, it’s greater than all mortgage debt within the US.
For this to occur in 90 days would seemingly imply a complete collapse of the financial system and society as we all know it. The banking sector evaporating into skinny air and the US greenback collapsing would throw the world into chaos, with an nearly unimaginable degree of crime, unrest and anarchy.
Individuals would lose their life financial savings and society would collapse near-instantly. And but, there are Bitcoiners cheering on Srinivasan on this guess. Go determine.
In an amusing accident, the guess comes almost a yr to the day that LUNA founder Do Kwon guess with one other nameless Twitter account that LUNA can be a lower cost in a single yr than it was then. This week marked the one-year level, and I feel any cryptocurrency investor is aware of what has occurred to LUNA.
Some individuals have an excessive amount of cash and simply don’t know what to do with it, I suppose.