- Bitcoin is on observe to shut September with a uncommon constructive acquire of 4.5 %.
- Traditionally, a inexperienced September has preceded a mean This fall rally of over 50 %.
- If the sample holds, Bitcoin might be eyeing the 170,000 greenback area by year-end.
In a strong and uncommon defiance of its personal grim historical past, Bitcoin is on the verge of closing the books on a constructive September.
That is no small feat. The month has lengthy been the cruelest on the crypto calendar, a constant sea of purple that has earned it the ominous nickname “Purple September.”
However this 12 months, a 4.5 % acquire has flipped the script, and in doing so, it might have simply lit the fuse for an explosive rally into the ultimate quarter of the 12 months.
A prophecy written within the charts
Historical past doesn’t repeat, nevertheless it typically rhymes. And on the earth of Bitcoin, the rhyme of a inexperienced September is a strong and bullish prophecy.
Based on historic knowledge, on the uncommon events that Bitcoin has managed to shut September in constructive territory—in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024—the ultimate quarter of the 12 months has produced spectacular outcomes, with common returns hovering to greater than 53 %.
In these cases, the fourth quarter returns have ranged from a strong 45 % to a shocking 66 %.
If that historic sample have been to play out once more this 12 months, Bitcoin might be eyeing the 170,000 greenback area earlier than the calendar flips to 2026.
The info reveals that October usually acts because the launchpad for these highly effective strikes, with a mean acquire of 21.8 %, whereas November continues the ascent.
This seasonal impact has been notably worthwhile within the years following a Bitcoin halving, as a potent cocktail of capital inflows and bullish market positioning mix to push the asset right into a recent section of worth discovery.
The view from the blockchain: a bullish tide is popping
This bullish seasonal setup isn’t just a statistical anomaly; it’s being actively confirmed by the deep undercurrents of the blockchain itself.
Key on-chain metrics at the moment are flashing inexperienced, signaling a basic and highly effective shift in market momentum.
The Spot Taker Cumulative Quantity Delta (CVD), a vital indicator that tracks the distinction between market purchase and market promote volumes, has flipped constructive on a 90-day foundation for the primary time since mid-July.
It is a clear and direct sign {that a} “Taker Purchase Dominant Part” is underway, a interval the place shopping for strain is now decisively outweighing promoting exercise.
On the similar time, the Coinbase premium index has been highlighting constant and aggressive accumulation by US traders all through the third quarter.
The highly effective alignment of those two key on-chain metrics reinforces the view {that a} new wave of shopping for momentum isn’t just coming—it’s already right here.
The stage is ready, the alerts are aligning, and the ultimate quarter of the 12 months might as soon as once more show to be a decisive and explosive one for the world’s main digital asset.