On-chain knowledge and market chatter present Bitcoin could also be shifting into a unique section. Glassnode warned on Aug. 20 that current revenue taking and better promoting strain level to a late stage within the cycle. Merchants and analysts are watching carefully.
Three Cycles Not Halvings
In keeping with analyst James Checkmate, Bitcoin’s historical past suits into three broad cycles reasonably than a rhythm set by halvings.
He calls them an adoption cycle from 2011 to 2018, an adolescence cycle from 2018 to 2022, and a maturity cycle from 2022 onward.
Checkmate argues these phases have been pushed by altering adoption patterns and market construction, not by the block reward cuts that occur each 4 years.
He even mentioned Bitcoin is “the one different endgame asset alongside gold,” suggesting the present section might stretch longer than many count on.
For my part, Bitcoin has skilled three cycles, and they don’t seem to be anchored across the halvings.
They’re anchored across the tendencies in adoption and market construction, with the 2017 high, and 2022 backside being the transition factors
🔴 Retail early adoption
🟠 Wild West, Growth &… pic.twitter.com/3rbUUpnwen— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) August 26, 2025
Bitcoin Halving Sample Nonetheless In Play
Studies have disclosed that the halving idea stays in style as a result of markets have peaked within the yr after earlier halvings — 2013, 2017, and 2021 are sometimes pointed to as examples.
The narrative goes {that a} provide shock from lowered block rewards, mixed with demand, pushes costs increased, and observers say the sample appears on monitor for 2025.
That view retains a easy timing mannequin alive: halving, then peak the following yr. It’s tidy and it’s simple to mannequin, which is why many merchants nonetheless use it.
BTCUSD buying and selling at $111,357 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Institutional Flows And Liquidity
Based mostly on stories, some voices now put extra weight on liquidity and institutional flows than on calendar-based occasions.
Analysts say the cycle is just not formally over till the market sees constructive returns subsequent yr. The four-year cycle could also be completed.
Credit score: Francesco Carta fotografo/Getty Photos, Alice Morgan/Investopedia
They added that enterprise cycle dynamics clarify the peaks and troughs higher than halving dates. Market veterans maintain it sensible: cycles by no means actually disappear — individuals purchase, costs rise, then sellers clear the features, and we begin once more.
How lengthy the bullish leg runs is determined by the place liquidity sits and the way a lot new capital arrives.
$BTC long-term holders have already realized extra revenue this cycle than in all however one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side strain. Taken alongside different indicators, this means the market has entered a late section of the cycle. pic.twitter.com/PHXkOizXhz
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 26, 2025
Bitcoin Indicators And Stakes
In the meantime, Glassnode’s late-cycle sign is a warning, and it was made public on Aug. 20. Merchants who comply with on-chain metrics level to elevated promoting and lowered accumulation as indicators to tighten danger.
On the similar time, proponents of the halving-linked mannequin notice the historic sample: bull peaks occurred after the halving in a number of cycles. Each side use laborious dates and numbers — years like 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2025 and 2026 — to make their instances.
Featured picture from Equiti, chart from TradingView
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