Elon Musk is elevating new questions on Bitcoin’s long-term security within the face of fast advances in quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO turned to his AI chatbot, Grok, to learn how seemingly it’s that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm may very well be cracked by {powerful} quantum machines.
His query got here simply as IBM revealed main plans for its next-generation quantum system referred to as Blue Jay, which is anticipated to achieve 2,000 world qubits by 2033.
Grok Predicts Low Threat, At Least For Now
In response to Grok, the chance of Bitcoin’s encryption getting cracked by quantum computers may be very low over the following 5 years. The AI estimates the prospect stays near zero throughout that interval.
However when searching to 2035, the likelihood goes up barely—although it nonetheless stays beneath 10%. These numbers are based mostly on professional assessments and present quantum capabilities.
Based mostly on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and professional surveys, the likelihood of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (by way of Grover’s algorithm, decreasing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is close to 0% within the subsequent 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires hundreds of thousands of error-corrected…
— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk’s considerations are usually not popping out of nowhere. Corporations like Google and Microsoft are growing their very own quantum platforms—Willow and Majorana 1—which have sparked debate over whether or not cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may at some point be susceptible to assaults from these ultra-powerful programs.
Proper now, most quantum programs solely have round 1,000 qubits. That’s far under the hundreds of thousands of error-corrected qubits scientists consider are obligatory to interrupt Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses.
Grok added that stronger algorithms like SHA-3 or SHA-512 may very well be used as replacements if wanted sooner or later.
Quantum Computer systems Vs. Blockchain
In the meantime, in keeping with a recent analysis by world auditing agency Deloitte, quantum computer systems may quickly threaten the safety of the Bitcoin blockchain, with round 25% of Bitcoins at present liable to being stolen by quantum assaults.
Ultimately, quantum computer systems may develop into {powerful} sufficient to interrupt the complete transaction course of, the analysts stated. To stop this, the Bitcoin community would want to undertake post-quantum cryptography—an rising however complicated answer at present being explored by cryptographers worldwide.
Picture: The Quantum Insider
IBM’s Blue Jay Provides Strain
IBM’s new system, Blue Jay, may have greater than a billion gate operations—one thing a lot past the capabilities of at this time’s computer systems.
It’s a part of the corporate’s bigger effort to be on the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With different business giants akin to Google and Microsoft not far behind, the competitors is heating up.
Tesla And SpaceX Each Maintain Bitcoin
Musk’s curiosity isn’t simply educational. Tesla at present owns 11,500 Bitcoins, price about $1.3 billion at present costs. SpaceX additionally holds a large quantity, reportedly round $850 million price of BTC. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his private portfolio.
With the extent of these holdings, it’s no marvel that Musk want to get forward of potential threats. His tweet is seemingly relaxed, nevertheless it signifies elevated consciousness within the tech world about how quantum advances may have an effect on the world of crypto and finance.
Featured picture from ABB, chart from TradingView
Editorial Course of for bitcoinist is centered on delivering totally researched, correct, and unbiased content material. We uphold strict sourcing requirements, and every web page undergoes diligent overview by our staff of prime know-how specialists and seasoned editors. This course of ensures the integrity, relevance, and worth of our content material for our readers.